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Should We Be Looking at Unemployment Numbers Differently?

The New York Times recently ran an article regarding unemployment titled: Don't Cheer Too Soon. Keep an Eye on the Core Jobless Rate. The piece suggests we should look at unemployment numbers somewhat differently. The author of the article, Jed Kolko, is a well-respected economist who is currently the Chief Economist at Indeed, the world's largest online jobs site. Previously, he was Chief Economist and VP of Analytics at Trulia, the online real estate site.

Kolko suggests the coronavirus pandemic has broken most economic charts and models, and all the numbers we regularly watch need a closer look. He goes on to explain that the decline in the unemployment number reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) earlier this month was driven by a drop in temporary layoffs. If we strip those out, we're left with what Kolko calls the core unemployment rate. Many economists have struggled with how to deal with the vast number of temporary layoffs, as a complete shutdown of the economy has never happened before. As the article states, in the last unemployment report:

73 percent of all unemployed people said they were temporarily unemployed, which means they had a return-to-work date or they expected to return to work in six months. Before the pandemic, temporary unemployment was never more than one-quarter of total unemployment.

The core unemployment rate handles this issue and also deals with another concern economists have discussed for years: the exclusion of the marginally attached. These are people who are available and want to work, but count as out of the labor force rather than unemployed because they haven't searched for work...

A Surprising Shift to the ‘Burbs May Be on the Rise

A Surprising Shift to the
‘Burbs May Be on the Rise | MyKCMWhile many people across the U.S. have traditionally enjoyed the perks of an urban lifestyle, some who live in more populated city limits today are beginning to rethink their current neighborhoods. Being in close proximity to everything from the grocery store to local entertainment is definitely a perk, especially if you can also walk to some of these hot spots and have a short commute to work. The trade-off, however, is that highly populated cities can lack access to open space, a yard, and other desirable features. These are the kinds of things you may miss when spending a lot of time at home. When it comes to social distancing, as we've experienced recently, the newest trend seems to be around re-evaluating a once-desired city lifestyle and trading it for suburban or rural living. George Ratiu, Senior Economist at realtor.com notes:

With the re-opening of the economy scheduled to be cautious, the impact on consumer preferences will likely shift buying behavior…consumers are already looking for larger homes, bigger yards, access to the outdoors and more separation from neighbors....

Unemployment Report: No Need to Be Terrified

Unemployment Report: No Need
to Be Terrified | MyKCMLast Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its latest jobs report. It revealed that the economic shutdown made necessary by COVID-19 caused the unemployment rate to jump to 14.7%. Many anticipate that next month the percentage could be even higher. These numbers represent the extreme hardship so many families are experiencing right now. That pain should not be understated. However, the long-term toll the pandemic will cause should not be overstated either. There have been numerous headlines claiming the current disruption in the economy is akin to the Great Depression, and many of those articles are calling for total Armageddon. Some experts are stepping up to refute those claims. In a Wall Street Journal (WSJ) article this past weekend, Josh Zumbrun, a national economics correspondent for the Journal explained:

News stories often describe the coronavirus-induced global economic downturn as the worst since the Great Depression…the comparison does more to terrify than clarify.

Zumbrun goes on to explain:

From 1929 to 1933, the economy shrank for 43 consecutive months, according to contemporaneous estimates. Unemployment climbed to nearly 25% before slowly beginning its descent, but it remained above 10% for an entire decade…This time,...

How to Honor a Veteran Today and Everyday

How to Honor a Veteran Today and Everyday | MyKCM

One hundred years ago, on the eleventh hour of the eleventh day of the eleventh month, we marked the end of the “war to end all wars.” That day, which was to be observed annually on the eleventh day of the eleventh month, became known as Armistice Day and then, later on, became Veterans Day.

But Veterans Day is not for veterans. They don’t serve for thanks or recognition. Veterans Day sets aside a day for those of us who haven’t worn the uniform to acknowledge those who have.

So today, we honor and remember.

If you ask a military family, ANY military family, how you can help them, they will respond without hesitation, “Make sure my service member is taken care of.”

If you ask a service member, ANY service member, how you can best honor them, they will respond without hesitation, “Take care of my family.”

Don’t know anyone who has served or is serving? More than likely, there are veterans in your midst. Each year, 260,000 military personnel relocate to new communities, and another 230,000 transition out of the military. In total, there are 22 million veterans among us in the world.

For those who relocate through a Permanent Change of Station (or PCS), it can be a pretty stressful time. There isn’t a lot of time to find a new place to live and the timeline is more accelerated for finding a place to call home.

MILLIE is an online community and digital marketplace that connects members...

Terra Linda 3/2 Eichler not on MLS Until 5.31.17

Coming Soon at $900,000, this is a wonderful home for your family or excellent investment opportunity. 3 Bed 2 Bath Terra Linda Eichler with Family Room and Two-Car Garage . Great light. Original mahogany paneling. Two-car garage. Close to Scotty's Market, Terra Linda Community Center and Pool; Great for kids! In good, mostly original condition with some upgrades over the years. Move right in, or remodel to your own specifications! Tenant-occupied. Please do not disturb tenants. Please contact Fred Anlyan at Marin Modern for details and information 415-847-0602 or email fred@marinmodern.com

More photos can be seen at http://www.752pennyroyal.com

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The Anlyan Report 4.16.17. Marin County February Home Sales, Prices Down From Year Ago

According to Core Logic/Data Quick, a real estate news service, the number of homes sold in Marin County in February, 2017 was 164, down 9.9% from February of 2016. The median sales price of a Marin County home was also down 4.7% in the same period.

Here's how it broke down:

City           Feb'17 #Homes Sold  Median$ Feb'17   Median$ Feb'16  Difference  

Mill Valley            28                     $1,260,050            $1,009,500             +24%

San Rafael          41                      $  791,050             $650,000               +21%

Novato                46                      $ 664,000             $675,000                 -1.6%             

The Data Quick report notes that, Bay Area Wide, it is normal for the number of housing units sold to increase about 2.8% from January to February in any given year. However Marin home sales declined 11.4% in the 1st two months of 2017, with 185 units sold in January and only 164 sold in February. Median prices during that period did increase very slightly from $810,000 to $815,000, a gain of .06%. Prices in Mill Valley and San Rafael Increased significantly and other Marin cities (Belvedere, Greenbrae, Larkspur, and San Anselmo) experienced wide swings to the minus side, however with relatively small numbers of sales, the individual homes...